Primer on the Super Tuesday Math

If you want to read how the presidential candidates are expected to do the Super Tuesday delegate mathematics, read the story here. Highlights below.

Considerations in Common

On Feb. 5, voters in 22 states will cast ballots. More than half of all Democratic delegates and over 40% of Republican delegates are at stake in a pair of races that remain far from settled.

* * *

Strategists must consider not just state-by-state polling, but also the widely varying rules governing each contest. Some states allow independents to vote in partisan primaries; others are closed. Some are caucuses more likely to attract activists; some are primaries where early voting is already under way.

* * *

Key decisions are coming about where to travel and how long to stay over the coming week. Is it worthwhile to stage a full-blown rally or town hall meeting? Or will a news conference in an airport tarmac do?

Democrat's Considerations

In the Democratic field, Sen. Hillary Clinton has the advantage when only registered party voters are allowed in. Sen. Barack Obama, with an extensive field organization, is expected to do well in caucuses.

* * *

In Democratic contests, most delegates are awarded proportionate to the vote by congressional district. Some districts have an even number of delegates, meaning the two major candidates are likely to divide the spoils no matter what; but in others, there is an odd number, meaning an investment in voter phone calls and mailings could yield one extra delegate.

Republican Considerations

For Republicans, many states are winner-take-all, so campaigns must assess if they have a shot. If not, they will skip these states altogether and focus on realistic targets.

* * *

Sen. John McCain will spend one day in the South; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee will go nowhere else.

* * *

For Super Tuesday, Mr. Huckabee plans to concentrate in Alabama, Georgia and his home state of Arkansas. The campaign also hopes to be competitive in neighboring Missouri, particularly the conservative southern, rural part of the state.

Sen. McCain plans to focus on California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He also will make a stop in Illinois.

* * *

Mr. Romney is still working through his options, hoping that a weakened Mr. Giuliani will give him a shot at northeastern states including New York and New Jersey. He is also analyzing states where the winner of each congressional district picks up Republican delegates, and is considering making a play for some in Georgia, Alabama and California, regardless of whether he can win the entire state, one of his strategists said.

Part of the goal, Mr. Romney said, is keeping opponents guessing. "Clearly it's a bit of ... a head fake there and amove in a different direction than they were expecting, but it's allabout getting delegates."

(But doesn't Romney keep us guessing about everything...like what his real views are?)

Delaware Matters!

The map features states large and small that rarely play an important role in presidential politics. That includes the megaprizes of California and New York, both too Democratic to matter in a general election and usually too late to matter in a primary. But the campaign is also reaching tiny quarters. Both Sens. Clinton and Obama are running TV ads in Delaware, and Mr. Obama has a half dozen paid staffers in Idaho.

Powered by ScribeFire.