2036 Could Be a Very Bad Year

2036 could be a very bad year, as in cataclysmically bad. There is an excellent chance, in astronomical terms, that Apophis could extinguish nearly all life on our planet.

I’m not talking about Apophis, the Goauld on the TV series Star Gate. Nor am I talking about the ancient Egyptian god Apophis, the “Great Destroyer” in Egyptian mythology although that is getting close.

I’m talking about the asteroid Aphophis that is 390m wide, which, if it slams into the earth, would

release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere. (link)

Scientists only discovered this monster last year hurtling toward us. At first astronomers were quite alarmed because the early estimates had it striking the earth in 2029. But later measurements have it passing near the earth on April 13, 2029. But that could be the problem:

Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.* (link)

That puts the odds in our favor. But when I consider that I usually gamble a few dollars a week on the Powerball with odds of winning at 1 in 146,107,962, I must ask myself if I'm sure I want to ignore odds of merely 1 in 5,500 in an astronomical lottery I don’t care to win?

No, thank you.

Apparently, scientists don’t want to take their chances either. They are “imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it.”

And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. (link)

The much lauded and capital-intensive goals of putting someone on Mars and weaponizing outer space are largely corporate welfare concerns. But compared to marshalling our efforts to preserve the planet from cataclysmic threats, these “goals” are seen for what they really are: the dangerous and grasping designs of oblivious, powerful men.
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* To see how close Apohis will pass earth in 2029 go here.